Comunicación

< Volver

Nueva publicación de investigadora del CEIGRAM: Mitigation efforts will not fully alleviate the increase in water scarcity occurrence probability in wheat-producing areas

Fecha: 09/10/2019

Recientemente se ha publicado en el área de Agricultura de la revista científica ScienceAdvances un artículo en el que participa la investigadora del CEIGRAM Margarita Ruiz-Ramos: Mitigation efforts will not fully alleviate the increase in water scarcity occurrence probability in wheat-producing areas .

En dicho artículo se muestra cómo el cambio climático influirá durante los próximos años en la escasez de agua a nivel mundial, lo que a su vez tendrá una incidencia negativa en la producción de los cultivos de secano como el trigo, una fuente clave de calorías y proteínas para los humanos.

Abstract:

Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of severe water scarcity (SWS) events, which negatively affect rain-fed crops such as wheat, a key source of calories and protein for humans. Here, we develop a method to simultaneously quantify SWS over the world’s entire wheat-growing area and calculate the probabilities of multiple/sequential SWS events for baseline and future climates. Our projections show that, without climate change mitigation (representative concentration pathway 8.5), up to 60% of the current wheat-growing area will face simultaneous SWS events by the end of this century, compared to 15% today. Climate change stabilization in line with the Paris Agreement would substantially reduce the negative effects, but they would still double between 2041 and 2070 compared to current conditions. Future assessments of production shocks in food security should explicitly include the risk of severe, prolonged, and near-simultaneous droughts across key world wheat-producing areas.

A continuación se presenta un breve vídeo explicativo del artículo científico:

Vídeo explicativo del estudio.

< Volver